The Ron Paul Movement Makes Polls Irrelevant

Saturday, December 22, 2007

The mainstream media's precious polls have become entirely irrelevant in the race for the Republican nomination.

Why?

Ron Paul.

The following are the reasons why the polls that usually show Ron Paul in the single digits are going to be proven to be worthless when the Republican primary results starting coming in:

1. The polls count on predictable behavior where only certain people (2004 George W Bush voters) are going to show up to vote. This means that a majority of Ron Paul's supporters (Independents, disgruntled Republicans, Libertarians, & Democrats) are not even included in these polls.

2. Ron Paul has been left out of a lot of the polls. He's been hidden as "6 for other" in many of them. There have even been reports that when people select Ron Paul that they've been dropped from the polling database.

3. The polls do not consider the strength of support. Most supporters of the so called "mainstream" candidates such as Rudy Giuliani & Mitt Romney don't really believe in their chosen candidate. They know deep down that their candidate is nothing special and just represents "politics as usual." They know that these people will say anything to be elected. They usually support their chosen candidate based on very superficial reasoning that can be knocked down easily by any sort of logical questioning.

A. These soft supporters could easily be convinced to support someone else (like Ron Paul.) This is particularly important in caucus states.

B. These soft supporters are not as likely to actually go out and vote. This is particularly important if there is bad weather on the day of a primary election.

4. The polls do not take into account that many of the primaries are open. An open primary means you do not have to be a Republican to vote. This means that all of Ron Paul's independent and Democrat supporters will be able to vote.

5. Many Democrats and independents have changed party affiliation to Republican to be able to vote for Ron Paul in closed primary states. Of course these people are not included in the polls.

Because of all of this I predict that Ron Paul's supporters will do more than surprise the MSM in the upcoming primaries. I predict they will shock the MSM. I expect Ron Paul to win Iowa & New Hampshire.

Primary Info:

The following states have open primaries: Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Hawaii, Idaho (possibly closing?), Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, North Dakota, Ohio, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, Wisconsin, Wyoming.

Click Here to see what the deadline is for changing your party affiliation.